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Discussion Starter #1
The main news channels, Social Media and newspapers are awash with half-truths, and in some instances outright lies that are giving a very misleading impression of the situation.
Of course it is very, very serious and I'm not for one moment making light of things but the numbers such as constant death-toll updates, and new cases identified, are constantly being trotted out without the real truth behind the figures.
Example. Of the total death toll in the UK, (578 as of 26th March, counting back from when?) virtually all of those were with people having serious underlying health issues.
It has been stated by Dr. Chris Smith (see reference below) that these people would probably have died anyway within a year or so.
The main (but not only) issues compounding this situation in the UK are:
The long-standing shortage of beds in ICU's across the UK (running at typically 90%+ capacity in "normal times") has meant that it is now being overwhelmed, unsurprisingly. For years we've been told that the NHS is on the brink of collapse.
The other issue is that the deaths of these people would normally been spread out over a year or so, but are being condensed into a very short timespan due to the virus, putting a sudden surge on the hospitals leaving them unable to cope.
Compare these deaths to those who die annually from Influenza strains Annual flu reports.

934181

These are not my views, but those of a number of very creditable sources:

Dr. Chris Smith, a British consultant virologist and a lecturer based at Cambridge University where he is a fellow of Queens' College, who hosts a superb podcast called The Naked Scientist.
Chris is regularly called upon by internation organisations and many news channels for his calm, balanced approach.

Sir David Spiegelhalter. A British statistician and Winton Professor of the Public Understanding of Risk in the Statistical Laboratory at the University of Cambridge and a Fellow of Churchill College, Cambridge.
Professor David Spiegelhalter | Statistical Laboratory

Another really good one is Dr. John Campbell who hosts a daily Youtube channel and giving another balanced perspective on the figures being touted in the media. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2sy3gtORANw

Having the facts around us can often alleviate the anxiety we all have during these unprecedented times.
 

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Anyone watch the film Contagion on telly last night? Made in 2011, but more like what's happening in the world right now (in a Hollywood sort of way).
 

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The main news channels, Social Media and newspapers are awash with half-truths, and in some instances outright lies that are giving a very misleading impression of the situation.
Of course it is very, very serious and I'm not for one moment making light of things but the numbers such as constant death-toll updates, and new cases identified, are constantly being trotted out without the real truth behind the figures.
Example. Of the total death toll in the UK, (578 as of 26th March, counting back from when?) virtually all of those were with people having serious underlying health issues.
It has been stated by Dr. Chris Smith (see reference below) that these people would probably have died anyway within a year or so.
The main (but not only) issues compounding this situation in the UK are:
The long-standing shortage of beds in ICU's across the UK (running at typically 90%+ capacity in "normal times") has meant that it is now being overwhelmed, unsurprisingly. For years we've been told that the NHS is on the brink of collapse.
The other issue is that the deaths of these people would normally been spread out over a year or so, but are being condensed into a very short timespan due to the virus, putting a sudden surge on the hospitals leaving them unable to cope.
Compare these deaths to those who die annually from Influenza strains Annual flu reports.

View attachment 934181
These are not my views, but those of a number of very creditable sources:

Dr. Chris Smith, a British consultant virologist and a lecturer based at Cambridge University where he is a fellow of Queens' College, who hosts a superb podcast called The Naked Scientist.
Chris is regularly called upon by internation organisations and many news channels for his calm, balanced approach.

Sir David Spiegelhalter. A British statistician and Winton Professor of the Public Understanding of Risk in the Statistical Laboratory at the University of Cambridge and a Fellow of Churchill College, Cambridge.
Professor David Spiegelhalter | Statistical Laboratory

Another really good one is Dr. John Campbell who hosts a daily Youtube channel and giving another balanced perspective on the figures being touted in the media. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2sy3gtORANw

Having the facts around us can often alleviate the anxiety we all have during these unprecedented times.
Thanks for this very interesting listening.
 

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I've already posted this link in another thread, but it's worth repeating:


The problem with this, & so many issues, is that statistics are being quoted by people who neither understand statistical method nor the science of the problem. A GCSE in Media Studies doesn't make you an expert.
 

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Discussion Starter #6
Thanks for this very interesting listening.
Glad you found it useful. Unfortunately it appears that some have not understood the intentions of my original post.
I'm just suggesting looking out calm and reasoned discussions by the professionals who are looking behind the headline figures, unlike most of the media outlets.
 

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Discussion Starter #7
I've already posted this link in another thread, but it's worth repeating:


The problem with this, & so many issues, is that statistics are being quoted by people who neither understand statistical method nor the science of the problem. A GCSE in Media Studies doesn't make you an expert.
Couldn't agree more. That's why I was suggesting people consider the views of credible voices, as referenced in my original post. They might be wrong, but they've probably forgotten more about the subject than most of us will ever know.
 

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Anyone watch the film Contagion on telly last night? Made in 2011, but more like what's happening in the world right now (in a Hollywood sort of way).
Yes...top timing I thought!....that film was postponed from a couple of weeks back when they thought it was inappropriate....now we are all in lockdown it's fine apparently! At least it proves all the phrases we are hearing everyday (lockdown, social distancing etc etc) were not just made up for the CORVID19 as that film was made in 2011. Good example of why we need lockdown as that film cleverly shows how easy a virulent virus can spread on surfaces and with physical contact...handy that the hero was immune though! Lol.
 

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I have a friend who knows a thing or two...

He is a world renowned virologist, and wrote and presented a Panorama programme on Pandemics. It is being shown again on TV in a few days.


He has also done a few other TV shows such as Rough science and Bite me.
 

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The thing is that these statistics need to be correct about the number of deaths.
If they’re not we’ll never see our restrictions lifted until the deaths associated with C-19 come down


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
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