Alfa Romeo Forum banner

21 - 40 of 91 Posts

·
Registered
Joined
·
29,280 Posts
The market doesn't agree with you I'm afraid.

As far as I read it and from the chatter I've heard the best offers are talking about deferred payback of interest on not just the penal rate but the bulk of the BoE exposure and a staged repayment of capital as and when conditions allow.

As for there being better offers in the wings, maybe but only as a pre liquidation fire sale or worse.

The BoE can only support NRK until something like the 10 February which when you consider the Christmas period will take 12 days out of there isn't much time to compete due dilligence or indeed run any proposal by the board and within the restrictions of PLC structures.

If there is any value in NRK, it's absorbtion into another institution creaming off the people who are better than BBB and tied in for periods whereby rates can be ramped. The problem with this is the wasteage of loans / write downs and that it will involve numerous redundancies in the NE which has a number of marginal seats. (think May 2009 Gordon vs Dave).

Remember this government was prepared to **** £50m against the wall in April / May 2005 to save 2 seats in Birmingham, what will they do for 6 seats in the North East and to mantain stability in the banking sector?

what's your background sloper, if you don't mind my asking. you seem quite financially savvy (for a lawyer;) )
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
34 Posts
I'd be a lot more worried if NR or other lenders starting seeing higher delinquency rates and defaults.
Deliquancy rates have been rising for 18 months and the CML predicts a big increase in repos next year. With inflationary pressures building the wriggle room for Merve King to cut rates is limited and I think the chances of another couple of 1/4 point rises by June are about 50/50.

Remember the price of crude always goes up at around this time and after a bad hurricane season in the gulf of mexico, instability in venezuala and the low US$ causing concern re margins in OPEC oil may continue to rise by maybe another 15 -30$pb.

So increased delinquancy, rates rising, banks like HFC and buy-to-let lenders like paragon getting par boiled, I doubt we'll be able to take stock until probably July 2008.

PS LIBOR is on the up again.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
29,280 Posts
The US credit issues have caused a domino effect throughout the capital markets and banking industry, hence its effects on the UK market.
many uk lenders are backed by the big US finance houses. it's mainly the niche lenders such as paragon, infinity, victoria mortages, advantage etc who have been used to getting easy funding from merrill lynch, investec etc but suddenly the big US players have put the brakes on lending money, particularly where there's higher than average risk.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
34 Posts
what's your background sloper, if you don't mind my asking. you seem quite financially savvy (for a lawyer;) )
I'm currently having a break from dealing with death and destruction (mainly death) and setting up a Ltd Co (not law related) and getting involved with a couple of other non law projects (oh and sh*tty nappies too).

I've always been a causal observer of economics and the markets and know a few traders, from hedge funds to oil / metals (mining etc) and bond dealers (think History of Arts at Durham not bright but awfully decent sorts, yah).

Personally I'd say that if I was having a punt on stocks at the mo. it would be in some of the smaller firms in the mining exploration sector, genetic modifications and biofuels developers and in stage 1 food processing.

However be aware that you've got to be prepared and able to lose every penny you invest. When dealers are moving out of the market into cash investments and protected secure liquidity it's time to keep your coat on let alone think og taking your shirt off.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
34 Posts
I am bearish on the banking and mortgage related sectors
I think Goldilocks has it about right on the banking / financial sector, but also think of the knock on effects of reduced trading volumes and tighter lending criteria and ramped costs on profitabilty across the board.

If you need to mantain greater reserves to deal with this volatility you're forced to restrict investment in growth, R&D, marketing and other potentially profit driving activities.

The only Bull in town is metals and arable crops.
 

·
Super Moderator
Joined
·
114,698 Posts
On the other hand, the introduction of Basel II is likely to help banks by reducing the overall amount of capital they need to hold against their portfolios.

Now, whether that's a good thing in the long term, we will only see in a few years' time.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
34 Posts
Capitalisation and level of reserves will always be an issue but I can't really speculate on this as I don't know who's holding what CDO's as assets rather than markign as write downs, but hey, If I did I'd be a big swinger in the square mile and posting on Maserati fora
 
E

·
Guest
Joined
·
0 Posts
Discussion Starter #32
(think History of Arts at Durham not bright but awfully decent sorts, yah)
So they tend to be LOMBARDs then? :)

I guess the assets of NR, against which our derrieres are now mortgaged, are worth exactly what somebody is prepared to pay for them.

Now the Miserable Caledonian and Eyebrow Man are showing no signs of the courage for nationalisation - perhaps the only way to fend off Sloper's fire sale and buy the time to minimise the damage and realise the underlying value of the mortgage book (but Maggie would not approve of that, so they can't). And, they're a bit busy looking down the back of the sofa for those CDs they mislaid.
 
V

·
Guest
Joined
·
0 Posts
Discussion Starter #34
New Labour wouldn't dare Nationalise anything! A dirty word in their book.
 
R

·
Guest
Joined
·
0 Posts
Discussion Starter #36 (Edited)
Was a time when most big industries in Britain were Nationalised, I seem to recall Mrs Thatcher and her goverment sold everything, whether we like it or not the one thing she was right about (and i hated her before all you lefties flame me lol) was that they were inefficient drains on the resources of the country poorly managed and poorly run with a workforce mainly ruled by union barons who wouldnt know a days work if they tripped over a yellow vest. Would we be better off with renationalising ?............:5:
 
E

·
Guest
Joined
·
0 Posts
Discussion Starter #37
Don't think it's the same as the monopolies of the 70s. The idea here is that a quick sale necessitates a sale for next to nothing, while a period of public ownership would buy time fro an orderly sale that protects the assets a bit more.

There's another article on it here. it's not the Grauniad (despite the URL), but it is The Observer (so you still might need your blue safety lenses :))

Guardian Unlimited | Comment is free | Northern Rock has to be nationalised
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
25,672 Posts
One of my friends manages a branch of Northern Rock, can't be nice from his perspective either, hands tied but he's the public face so he gets all the localised grief.
 
V

·
Guest
Joined
·
0 Posts
Discussion Starter #39
Was a time when most big industries in Britain were Nationalised, I seem to recall Mrs Thatcher and her goverment sold everything, whether we like it or not the one thing she was right about (and i hated her before all you lefties flame me lol) was that they were inefficient drains on the resources of the country poorly managed and poorly run with a workforce mainly ruled by union barons who wouldnt know a days work if they tripped over a yellow vest. Would we be better off with renationalising ?............:5:
Why do you always assume anyone who disagrees with you is a 'lefty'? It's all relative, I mean, it could just be that you're a closet Nazi! :rolleyes: :p ;)
Notwithstanding the Unions needing sorting out in the 70's, it has now become painfully obvious that the sell off of various utilities and Industries was driven by political dogma and not done in the best way to benefit the public. The silver was sold off for short term shekels for the govt, consultancy firms got stinking rich, the industries in question have now become a bottomless pit for taxpayers' money for little or no improvement. Those industries were underfunded and run into the ground under Thatcher, made to look crap, and then sold for peanuts to the friends of the Conservatives. Staff were laid off in vast numbers, the service went down the pan and now we are paying through the nose to get back where we ought to be.
 
R

·
Guest
Joined
·
0 Posts
Discussion Starter #40
Don't think it's the same as the monopolies of the 70s. The idea here is that a quick sale necessitates a sale for next to nothing, while a period of public ownership would buy time fro an orderly sale that protects the assets a bit more.

There's another article on it here. it's not the Grauniad (despite the URL), but it is The Observer (so you still might need your blue safety lenses :))

Guardian Unlimited | Comment is free | Northern Rock has to be nationalised
Blue glasses removed...yes i see the necessity to re nationalise in this instance, i thought other commente were referring to a mass re nationalisation, yes the people who work in Northern Rock and indeed the people who have money mortgages etc certainly need protecting.
 
21 - 40 of 91 Posts
Top