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Discussion Starter #1 (Edited)

Unemployment is rising from a 40-year low at the start of the year; around 1.8m households made claims for Universal Credit between 16 March and 28 April.12 The OBR has published a ‘reference’ scenario which suggests that, if the current measures stay in place until June and are then eased over the next three months, unemployment would rise by more than 2 million in the second quarter of 2020.13 The OBR’s scenario suggests that GDP could fall by 35% in the second quarter of this year – and the annual contraction could be the largest in over 300 years.
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Discussion Starter #3
Your freedom , and future way of life has just changed in the blink of an eye. And that’s all you have to say, And?
They’re changing laws on freedom, yes it’s in the name of fighting Covid, but damn this is serious

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So your big plan to tackle this **** shower is what?
I'm not going to stress over plans I have no control over. I'll just put up with a bit a squeeze on my 'freedom' until we get through to the other side.
As for the economy going **** up and unemployment, that was a given from day one. Again, **** all I can do about that apart from hope I keep my job.
 

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Your freedom , and future way of life has just changed in the blink of an eye. And that’s all you have to say, And?
They’re changing laws on freedom, yes it’s in the name of fighting Covid, but damn this is serious

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Serious? You think?
 

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This reminds me very much of the sort of totally disconnected headlines I occasionally see on news services like Reuters or the BBC. I saw one recently that said (well, shouted really) :

"UK High Streets see biggest drop in footfall on record!"

Really? Everything is shut and we are all at home, and the fact that this means those closed shops haven't had customers in is "news"?

Same with all these "lowest/highest/widest/smallest xyz in a generation" stats. We've just stopped 75% of economic activity in large parts of the planet. It's likely to have had an impact :rolleyes:

The only bit to hang any shreds of optimism on is that this economic impact is not related to some impenetrably complex set of (un)credit(worthy) default options that snuck up on us or a sudden realization that our commodity prices are 10 x over valued - it's 100% due to a tangible thing (if a virus can be described as such).

While I disagree on 99.99% of what the Trumptard says in the US - one thing I do agree with him on is that when the demand engine restarts it will be just as big and ugly and demanding as it was back in December 2019 and it will need servicing by companies and individuals just like it did then. There will be a lag in supply, that is for sure - as we have seen many businesses small and large break under the cliff edge drop in revenues - but demand always gets serviced so Carluccios may come back as Ricardos, and Laura Ashley may come back as Maggie Parsley etc - but we will all be demanding the same amount of Italian grub and faux cottage bedspreads because that's what we do. We consume.

Longer term I expect to see big fundamental shifts in flows of people, capital and production driven by some of the impacts we are seeing on supply chains - but those things take years to unfold and who knows what other jolts are coming down the line which may switch those things left and right (and maybe back on themselves) - but one thing we can be sure of is that humans do not want to sit on their erses looking at the grass grow. As a species we consume and the resumption of consumption will be inevitable.
 

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While I disagree on 99.99% of what the Trumptard says in the US - one thing I do agree with him on is that when the demand engine restarts it will be just as big and ugly and demanding as it was back in December 2019 and it will need servicing by companies and individuals just like it did then. There will be a lag in supply, that is for sure - as we have seen many businesses small and large break under the cliff edge drop in revenues - but demand always gets serviced so Carluccios may come back as Ricardos, and Laura Ashley may come back as Maggie Parsley etc - but we will all be demanding the same amount of Italian grub and faux cottage bedspreads because that's what we do. We consume.
You don't expect to see a change in attitudes towards consumption following on from the lockdown? Maybe people being a bit more risk-averse, a bit more likely to save something for a rainy day or tough times, paying down debt rather than taking on more? I think coming out of lockdown will change people's values quite considerably, where they may try to prioritise financial security over 'more stuff'. I guess it depends how long this recession lasts for and how bad it gets, and what happens to prices. The Depression-mentality never left folk for their whole lives, those who lived through the 1930s.
 

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Millionaires are made during a recession. They are the individuals who will take advantage of low rates, pent up demand, market opportunities and importantly employ people. The economy will recover as people don't change at least not in the long term so the demand will be there but maybe in different markets.

As for having lost my freedom I think not - infact I 've just regained some. Following latest Gov advice I'm off to play golf tomorrow, just me and the wife outside in fresh air. Yes we have had to observe a few weeks of relatively mild lockdown but as a result we are all still here.

Think I'll boost the economy and treat myself to that new driver I was looking at getting in March. Things are already looking better :)
 

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You don't expect to see a change in attitudes towards consumption following on from the lockdown? Maybe people being a bit more risk-averse, a bit more likely to save something for a rainy day or tough times, paying down debt rather than taking on more? I think coming out of lockdown will change people's values quite considerably, where they may try to prioritise financial security over 'more stuff'. I guess it depends how long this recession lasts for and how bad it gets, and what happens to prices. The Depression-mentality never left folk for their whole lives, those who lived through the 1930s.

Doubt it, and the message so far is “if it all gets ****, the government will bail you out”. I think loads of people with stuff to sell are pushing a “this will change what we do message” but we will go back to normal. But, it will be a long road...

I suspect the recession following this will be the most severe in my lifetime. Several things are happening:

- really large businesses are in survival mode. Investment cancelled, only focusing on keeping the lights on. Proper busineses, employing 10,000+ people. No one is being fired now, but the writing is on the wall next year,

- Physical Retail was dying slowly but social distancing will kill it in short order. Shops don’t,work on the basis of queueing in the car park. You’ve got all the shop workers, but commercial property employs a **** tonne of UK workers invovled in maintenance.

- Travel and leisure - just gone. Incompatible with social distancing. It will actually be worse as these come off Furlough - yes you can operate, but at 20% of the revenue. No business can sustain that, however well run.

For me, the only good outcome would be rapid deployment of a vaccine and everything goes back to normal - or we just suck it up and get on with life. Then we would have a V shaped recession. Any other scenario does not contain the tools for large segments of the economy to recover.
 

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A lot of people are somewhat insulated from the economic crisis. 1 in 5 are in the furlough scheme and probably expect that when lockdown is sufficiently eased they will go back to work.

My suspicion is that there will be no jobs to go back to. The Government band aid will be removed soon and when it does that's when the full impact will be seen.

I have no idea what NORMAL will look like anymore. We still have a long way to go before we hit the bottom of this thing.
 

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Discussion Starter #11
A lot of people are somewhat insulated from the economic crisis. 1 in 5 are in the furlough scheme and probably expect that when lockdown is sufficiently eased they will go back to work.

My suspicion is that there will be no jobs to go back to. The Government band aid will be removed soon and when it does that's when the full impact will be seen.

I have no idea what NORMAL will look like anymore. We still have a long way to go before we hit the bottom of this thing.
It’s been referred to for some weeks now as the “ New Normal “ a world of every move you make you’ll have to go through their rules.


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Discussion Starter #12 (Edited)
Serious? You think?
What I mean is I believe we once had a capitalist society under a vail of democracy.
Now we have a capitalist society controlled by authoritarianism. ( like China )
The structure of society as we knew it has been rewritten. They may not find a vaccine, we’ve never found a cancer cure. These rules won’t just suddenly be put the bin. They must have took the whole lockdown period to create them. I just hope I’m wrong and this is just a dream.
Scroll down to you get to enforcement, by the sounds of things at any given time Parliament can change the enforcement of the legislation I suspect to have more control

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What I mean is I believe we once had a capitalist society under a vail of democracy.
Now we have a capitalist society controlled by authoritarianism. ( like China )
The structure of society as we knew it has been rewritten. They may not find a vaccine, we’ve never found a cancer cure. These rules won’t just suddenly be put the bin. They must have took the whole lockdown period to create them. I just hope I’m wrong and this is just a dream.
Scroll down to you get to enforcement

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You've lost me again. Are you saying that the Government which we elected has wanted to do this all along and coronavirus just gave them the opportunity?
 

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Millionaires are made during a recession. They are the individuals who will take advantage of low rates, pent up demand, market opportunities and importantly employ people. The economy will recover as people don't change at least not in the long term so the demand will be there but maybe in different markets.

As for having lost my freedom I think not - infact I 've just regained some. Following latest Gov advice I'm off to play golf tomorrow, just me and the wife outside in fresh air. Yes we have had to observe a few weeks of relatively mild lockdown but as a result we are all still here.

Think I'll boost the economy and treat myself to that new driver I was looking at getting in March. Things are already looking better :)
In a normal recession, the default / winding up of the older, more badly run and irrelevant businesses has to happen first to free up resources which the new entrepreneur can utilise much more efficiently. Has that happened yet?

Long term demand growth had all but dried up anyway prior to this epidemic - demography tells us that much.
 

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Doubt it, and the message so far is “if it all gets ****, the government will bail you out”. I think loads of people with stuff to sell are pushing a “this will change what we do message” but we will go back to normal. But, it will be a long road...

I suspect the recession following this will be the most severe in my lifetime. Several things are happening:

- really large businesses are in survival mode. Investment cancelled, only focusing on keeping the lights on. Proper businesses, employing 10,000+ people. No one is being fired now, but the writing is on the wall next year,

- Physical Retail was dying slowly but social distancing will kill it in short order. Shops don’t work on the basis of queueing in the car park. You’ve got all the shop workers, but commercial property employs a **** tonne of UK workers involved in maintenance.

- Travel and leisure - just gone. Incompatible with social distancing. It will actually be worse as these come off Furlough - yes you can operate but at 20% of the revenue. No business can sustain that, however well run.

For me, the only good outcome would be the rapid deployment of a vaccine and everything goes back to normal - or we just suck it up and get on with life. Then we would have a V-shaped recession. Any other scenario does not contain the tools for large segments of the economy to recover.
Physical retail does appear to be done for - what happens to the landlords and town centre property values? How leveraged are those guys, any risk of contagion? Will we go to negative interest rates and will they have access to funds at actual negative rates, once the banks have added their margin?

Would travel & leisure go back to how it was if social distancing was abandoned once the virus risk has passed? That's the big question for that industry. Do they mothball till this is all over, or just wind-down now?
 

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The worrying aspect of bricks and mortar retail being on the way out is its affect on investments such as pension funds which used to regard property as a safe bet.
 

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We agree on
In a normal recession, the default / winding up of the older, more badly run and irrelevant businesses has to happen first to free up resources which the new entrepreneur can utilise much more efficiently. Has that happened yet?

Long term demand growth had all but dried up anyway prior to this epidemic - demography tells us that much.
I agree that badly run / irrelevant and often newer start up businesses will suffer first in any normal recession, and no I don't think it has happened yet due to Gov bailouts etc which makes all this far from normal, so all those budding millionaires will have to wait.
You will have to enlighten me regards the demographics, I can only speak for myself as a self employed individual, but think any leveling off in demand in the UK towards end of 2019 and prior to the pandemic was due to "Brexit uncertainty".
 

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Physical retail does appear to be done for - what happens to the landlords and town centre property values? How leveraged are those guys, any risk of contagion? Will we go to negative interest rates and will they have access to funds at actual negative rates, once the banks have added their margin?

Would travel & leisure go back to how it was if social distancing was abandoned once the virus risk has passed? That's the big question for that industry. Do they mothball till this is all over, or just wind-down now?
I would not like to be holding commercial property now - especially stuff that cannot be repurposed as residential. There will be debt, but the bigger concern is employment - there will be none. Warehousing will be in demand, but I expect even big names like John Lewis to get in serious trouble.

IMO travel would go rapidly back if rules were not imposed. Of course there will be a load of people too frightened to leave their houses, but very quickly they'll see the rest of the world getting on with their lives and join in. If it's going to take 4 hours to get through the airport with an anal probe for your temperature, then the airlines need to pack up in an orderly fashion right now.

The big variable for me is the point at which the population says "**** it". I don't see people waiting patiently as 6 nearly empty trains go past before they can get on one. It's unworkable. I suspect the transition from "lockdown" to aggressive normality will be shorter than the authorities would like, and it will be uncontrollable. See "thousands of people go to the park in Hackney" and basically raise 2 fingers to the police. And, when you look at the photos., they're all young. They could be forgiven for thinking they'd been screwed over yet again.

The people who will do well in this? Private Equity and anyone with capital. They are going to have a field day buying up assets from perfectly good businesses and flogging them to China.
 

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Property like retail sites usually take 2 or 3 years gestation to completion so may start near the top of the economic cycle and reach completion at the lowest point. It doesn’t look like anything but food will be needing a physical presence and even that is being trained out of us.
 

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Discussion Starter #20
You've lost me again. Are you saying that the Government which we elected has wanted to do this all along and coronavirus just gave them the opportunity?
Everyone knows on here I don’t tippy - toe around my words. If I wanted to say that I would of just done so.
I think it’s what you’ve starting to realise.


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