Of course it takes two to make GATT XX1V work, that’s a statement of the obvious (though possibly not to Boris Johnson). The real question is why would the EU not tango? They benefit from free trade to the tune of £96 billion a year – our trade deficit with them. That’s 5% of our GDP!
The answer is that they are terrified that if Brexit is a success other countries will follow us out, so they try to trap us in a quasi colonial status with Teresa May’s putrid withdrawal agreement. Then they can make sure Brexit is painful enough to have us asking to rejoin.
WTO rules will be difficult for those who can’t cope with change, but for the agile there are big opportunities. Take cars: 10% tariffs might knock our exports down by a third (the only estimate I’ve found) so we lose 224 thousand export sales (2018 figures).
The EU exports 1.8 million cars to us so the same 10% tariff loses them 600 thousand sales in the UK.
Net gain to our manufacturers: 600 – 224 = 376 thousand extra car sales, and costs are lower because they don’t have to be exported. (No wonder then that BMW is showing interest in the Honda plant.)
Our £96 billion deficit with them means that the same logic applies in most areas. Take Beef: we export around a million tons to them, they export around two million tons to us. 40% tariffs would probably decimate this trade, so our farmers gain by up to a million extra tons. What they can’t supply sheep farmers can benefit from, and the rest we buy on the world market.
Don’t be afraid of change – look for the opportunities.
That’s brilliant! Don’t know what I have been so worried about.
Complex financial and trading agreements, which took decades to establish, condensed into a few simple sentences.
I can’t believe, at this late stage, anyone could get away with such childlike naivety. Of course, this all presupposes, this individual is going to keep his job. Or his company is not going to suffer the consequences of the downturn in the economy. Or his investments will suffer as more and more companies fail.
I suppose, he eats a lot of lamb and beef.
And I suppose, he thinks, on the 31st October, BMW will immediately start to produce cars at the ex - Honda plant and the current workforce will be seamlessly re - engaged by BMW and as we are such a multitalented workforce, there will be no issues regarding the fact, on the 31/10 they were producing Hondas and on the 1/11, they will be building M5s
Dear God, is this the cream of the Brexit Philosophy? Cloud cuckoo Land or what! Some tw-t was standing in Parliament, saying, he is going to stay up all night on the 31st Oct, to watch the Sun rise on a free nation.
Hallelujah! Hallelujah! The Messiah has returned! I’m off now to buy the winning Lottery Ticket.