Re: Northern Rock. Christ on a bike!
I'd be a lot more worried if NR or other lenders starting seeing higher delinquency rates and defaults.
Deliquancy rates have been rising for 18 months and the CML predicts a big increase in repos next year. With inflationary pressures building the wriggle room for Merve King to cut rates is limited and I think the chances of another couple of 1/4 point rises by June are about 50/50.
Remember the price of crude always goes up at around this time and after a bad hurricane season in the gulf of mexico, instability in venezuala and the low US$ causing concern re margins in OPEC oil may continue to rise by maybe another 15 -30$pb.
So increased delinquancy, rates rising, banks like HFC and buy-to-let lenders like paragon getting par boiled, I doubt we'll be able to take stock until probably July 2008.
PS LIBOR is on the up again.