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2K views 50 replies 17 participants last post by  F1ve_Claw 
#1 ·
Been watching the markets closely for a while now. I'm not an economist or trader but I can see things aren't looking great at the moment. The cause of all the worry seems to be China's stock market. Other factors like a drop in oil price, weakening rand etc adds to the worries.

A rise in the US Federal Reserve rate might make things better.

So what do you guys reckon ? Are we heading for another recession ?


The next week is probably a good time to buy some Naspers, FNB and Woolies shares and wait out the storm....
 
#2 · (Edited)
Chinese stocks trade at a PE of 60. Basically you pay R60 for every R1 profit they make. S&P, FTSE in UK and JSE trade at PE's of around 19. So the chinese shares are extremely expensive. This is due to the fact that punters pushed up these shares expecting massive future profits. Chinese economy slows, profit expectations drop, then everyone realises, oh ***** these shares are crazy expensive and they sell and dump shares, causing a flight from emerging markets (and stocks in general into safer options like German and US government bonds). Causing a massive sell off in stock markets.

Buffet always said. Be greedy when others are fearful, be fearful when others are greedy. Im piling in now. The stock market is where I made myself a lot of money over the years. And I will continue to do so.
 
#3 ·
Chinese economy slows, profit expectations drop, then everyone realises, oh ***** these shares are crazy expensive and they sell and dump shares
May I rewrite part of your post, Perreby?

Rewrite: "People start realising that the Chinese government has simply been lying about Chinese growth figures for years, profit expectations drop, then everyone realises, oh ***** these shares are crazy expensive and they sell and dump shares..."
 
#6 ·
We(All countries) were never out of recession, it was all our own countries who lied to us. I beleive the saying goes "Only an idiot takes the same course of action and expects a different outcome"

I don't know about S.A. but i suspect its the same as UK in that this nonsense so called boom is based on estate agents being greedy *******s again.
 
#10 ·
As a very basic guide:

Do invest in the stock market and be patient. If you don't have time or know-how to do research, just pick an ETF or some fund with low fees and park money there - for years. Offshore funds or ETFs can be a good idea. As a basic thing, try to climb in when the market is low and remain invested. If you don't want to deal with too much tax hassles, don't take out money all the time.
Also buy some gold and hold on to it.

And do keep some liquid cash around too, but shop around carefully where you put it, so you don't lose too much to inflation by keeping it in a savings account - you will lose to inflation, but try to minimise it. Just because something is called a "savings account" doesn't mean that it actually offers half-decent interest. Half the "savings accounts" on the market have pitiful interest rates. Get something that offers at least repo minus 1,5 percentage points, preferably higher.
 
#11 ·
I don't have savings...saving into my house and for kids I save in 'markets' and for my retirement and save in 'markets'.

I've never had this question answered before:

"well, if you're making so much money and letting us know about it at every braa...take my R50k right now and do something worthwhile with it" to which all these so called investors always have maningy excuses.

Its a gamble in my opinion...a rather uneducated opinion, but one non-the-less.
 
#12 ·
Its a gamble in my opinion...a rather uneducated opinion, but one non-the-less.
Yeah it is a gamble - but there are some indicators.

A simple example is Naspers. The Chinese share tencent makes up a massive part of Naspers - so if you want to get an idea of whats going to happen to Naspers - look at what tencent is doing.

Then the old rule (buy low and sell high) - (Monday was a good day to buy) and then just wait till they restore to their original highs and then sell.

Then instead of using a savings account for interest - rather use a Unit Trust.
 
#15 ·
I am no expert but in my opinion in times of uncertainty paying off your debt is the best thing you can do. I pulled out all my investments about a month and a half ago and dumped it in a money market account. Long-term not the right thing to do I agree but when I saw the cracks I decided to pull out of the high ride we been having these last couple of years. I will wait out 5 months or so and review what happens before reinvesting. I am in the construction industry and without a doubt there is a slowdown coming with very little in the pipeline for the coming year. We have been seeing this already in the first quarter of the year.

I am in the fortunate position of not having debt but if I were you Giuli I would definitely have dumped it in a home load account vs. any cash holding account.
 
#16 ·
I am no expert but in my opinion in times of uncertainty paying off your debt is the best thing you can do. I pulled out all my investments about a month and a half ago and dumped it in a money market account. Long-term not the right thing to do I agree but when I saw the cracks I decided to pull out of the high ride we been having these last couple of years. I will wait out 5 months or so and review what happens before reinvesting. I am in the construction industry and without a doubt there is a slowdown coming with very little in the pipeline for the coming year. We have been seeing this already in the first quarter of the year.
Sure - only caveat with that approach is to be aware of possible tax implications, both capital gains and possible income tax issues. These taxes are very distortionary on investment.
 
#23 ·
The ultimate question to ask here is...what is the point?

What is the point of investing? To each it will be personal...some want a Giulia QV, so they invest to make the money quicker and in greater quantity, however...the gamble exists as you are NOT sure whether it will pay off. Other do it because they love money and money is their security, we all know how that ends.

The money system is designed to make the rich even richer and the others are just there...dangling and being happy with any type of return.

My wife has her degree major in investments and the ultimate end is that its too big of a risk(read GAMBLE) and the enticement factor is always level 10! But, as I stated above, each gambler WILL win...and ultimately these winning will be his end.

I've always wanted to get into it but somehow I just never did, always something coming up or someone saying they'll assist but never do. So there are apparently people making money but will never make money for you or share the 'secrets' of making the money on the stock markets...big LOL.

I have the R50k if someone can make it R100k without gambling I'll be sold. For now, my measly money goes into my cozy home.

:thumbup:
 
#30 ·
I bought 500 PSG shares earlier this week at average price of R173 a share.

Sold them all this morning at R193.01 a share. That's a quick R10k profit.

Was it a gamble? Yes it was. Walking out your front door and getting behind the wheel of a car is gamble every day too.

But it was a calculated gamble based on knowledge of the markets and knowing when certain shares are oversold and correction overdone.

Then its having the b@lls to commit funds to take the chance.

No risk no reward. The greater the risk the greater the possible reward.
 
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#32 ·
Nice! I stocked up on MTN and Sanlam duringtheir declines over last two weeks. Now ill sit back patiently and wait till they reward me :)
 
#33 ·
Im starting to think I should have hung onto those Naspers shares a little longer. They recently released a new product - a competitior for Netflix called Showmax.
I also 'heard' big things will be happening to TakeALot soon.

Oh well - what do they say - "winners know when to stop" :biglaugh:
 
#36 ·
My investments are all done through my banker but the problem is that it is "guaranteed" meaning relatively low risk for the bulk share. 30% high risk, 30% medium and 40% guaranteed returns. I have no knowledge of the stock market except minerals (where you can make it huge virtually overnight) but I never invest myself. Just keep paying the banker and reading the bottom line on the monthly reports.

There is always an interesting phenomenon in an unsure exonomic climate. Gold will cost more than platinum (like now) and that is a sure sign of a downward spiral in the markets but knowing your paladiums from your rhodiums is a good bit of knowledge. Which is more stable, how fluctuations are affected by gold and platinum prices (often delayed due to knock-on effect so safer in case you miss the original sell point) and how much they differ. I wish I could explain the relationships. It's almost like dealing in forrex. Change rands to pounds then to yen then to dollars and back to rands and you could end up with more (or less) depending on the current environment.

Like horse racing, you need to know what you are betting on but if you don't know the field you could bet R100 on the 16 horses and score a 20:1 on the winner and walk of with something small. Or if you lose it would also be smaller loss than betting R1600 on a losing horse.
 
#38 ·
Ok...a few posts ago you said Buffet does not gamble...and even poked fun by stating youll walk into a casino of it were so...

Now youre saying yes, its a gamble?

Ok.

Let me reopen my account and forget the disdane i foolishly developed for this 'gambling'

tips and tricks?
 
#39 ·
You missed the point. I said everything in life is a 'gamble' or a risk. But there is a difference between foolishly putting money on a colour at a casino and researching a stock and taking a calculated risk on investing in a share.

To me people that see the markets as gambling either got burnt because they didn't know what they were doing or heard it from someone else who got their @ss kicked by Mr Market!

Make no mistake! If you don't know what you doing the markets will kick your behind. Nut with patience and guts, one can make a lot of money from the markets. Thats a fact.
 
#40 ·
But this is what Ive been saying...IF you know what your doing then there is the R50k...since you know what youre doing come do it for me too...no? You mos know exactly what youre doing...:biglaugh:
 
#42 ·
now were getting somewhere!!!

name the price and risk and and and...i made noce money with one spacific stock. i sold it when i bought my house and never worried about this gambling anymore...but now I need to get back in. Maybe one can document this....Like put in R5 or R10k in order to get R60k by Winter 2016 when I plan on fitting AirLift performance suspension ... just to show if its possible etc???


hhhmmmmmm
 
#43 ·
It will be very hard to make that small amount grow to that amount as fees will eat away at your profits.

Unless you used geared instruments where you get more exposure for your cash but you run the risk of losing more than you put in.

We can take the discussion off-line. You have my email address.
 
#47 ·
I used to daytrade shares and index futures but moved a few years back into trading forex and commodities - the liquidity and volatility make for far more profitable opportunities. I also used to run courses in the UK on technical analysis and risk management.

One thing I note from a lot of the posts here is the parochial view taken on returns - It's not good enough to see a 10% annual return on investment measured in rand when the rand is falling against other major currencies by more than 10% per annum, and with no end in sight. If you're investing or swing trading shares on the long side, consider UK, US and Japanese shares - you'll gain not only from the capital appreciation on the share but also from the increased value of the quoted currency - GBP, USD or JPY when you come to close. Weaker South African and Australian shares make great shorts at the moment for the same reason - their currencies are falling fast, and so the opportunity is to combine the profits from the falling share price with the profits from the falling rand.
 
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