Yes that post #9 is scary, but doesn't really provide much useful information, especially in my case. The stats are of 50 or so people who have been on the forum to say their cambelt failed. We don't have the numbers to compare how many cambelts didn't fail because they were robust, had an easy life, or were replaced in time. The sort of owners whose cambelt lasted 10 years and 130k miles before failing aren't going to report it to the forum, because they aren't surprised or don't care. And another thought... How many of the early failures were a second or third belt that was poorly fitted or left the water pump in place?
I think I'll try to find the source data, and see if at least some of these questions have answers.