Originally Posted by mikeyw
What i'm saying Bazza is the following :-
New Car costs 19K - 2 yrs time value 16K...loss 3K
2yr old 2nd hand GT costs 17K - In 2 yrs (when it's 4yrs old and no warranty) then worth 12K...loss 5K
So you loose less money on the new car.
See what i'm getting at ?
The biggest fall in value will happen after the GT exits it's warranty period I believe.
But how do you know it'll only be worth 12k at that point?
And if you're just guessing, then your guess (and everyone elses for that matter) would have been that a 2 year old model would sell for much less than it is doing, so why believe that your guess for 4 years is any more accurate?
To put it another way - I've never heard of a depreciation curve which gets steeper over time, all cars depreciate faster when newer.
The fact that the car has depreciated less than expected over 2 years had led you to the conclusion that it will depreciate more over the following 2 years, it leads me to the conclusion that the depreciation will be less than expected for those 2 years too.
The only other explanation that I can see is that the current high 2nd hand price is down to a lack of supply and a large demand, in which case, were the supply to suddenly increase, that could lead to a sudden drop in value, but it'd also make new prices drop.
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